WP1: Emissions

 

Coordinated by Hugo Denier van der Gon (TNO)

 

MEGAPOLI Partners involved: DMI, MPIC, ARIANET, FMI, KCL, TNO, USTUTT

Summary of progress toward objectives

Much progress has been made towards O1.1 (Compile regional and global emission inventories for all relevant/desired pollutants and GHGs) through the compilation of regional (European) scale inventories. A consistent base year 2005 anthropogenic emission inventory (prototype) for Europe is compiled and made available to the partners (D1.2). Natural regional and global fire emissions have been generated and a sea salt aerosol model has been evaluated and can be used to predict SS aerosol emissions. The second part of O.1.1; global emission inventory (D1.1) has been delayed (see next section) but this issue has been tackled and a global emission inventory is now available to the modellers in MEGAPOLI.. 
O1.2 (Deliver (high resolution) state-of-the-art gridded emission maps for present and projection years and nest more detailed Megacity inventories in the regional or global emission maps). The compiled regional scale emissions for the base year 2005 have been gridded on 1/8 x 1/16 degree resolution. The WP partners have actively contacted authorities in the 1st level megacities (Paris, London, Rhine-Ruhr area, Po Valley) responsible for local MegaCity (MC) emission data. A good cooperation is established and data are being made available. The local MC emissions are being compared with default estimates, gridded and currently prepared for insertion in the final European scale emission map (see also partner contributions) resulting in D1.6 (Final gridded European inventory) available before the planned M24, thereby, allowing more time for usage within the MEGAPOLI project by other WPs.
Two other objectives (i.e. O1.3: Development of a baseline scenario for 2020, 2030 and 2050 for Europe and the relevant megacities e.g., Paris, London, Rhine-Ruhr, Po Valley, Mexico City is currently pursued and nearly ready; O1.4: Validate and improve EI's in cooperation with other WPs through comparison of measured-modelled concentrations, source strength analysis and use of source apportionment results) will be pursued during 2nd and 3rd years.

 

Summary details for each relevant WP deliverables, milestones, and tasks

Task 1.1: Global anthropogenic and natural emission inventories (lead: TNO, MPIC, FMI)

Global anthropogenic delayed, see summary details for deliverables (see above); Natural emissions are being prepared (see FMI natural emissions section under significant results).

Task 1.2: Regional Pan-European anthropogenic emission inventory (lead: TNO, USTUTT)

First version (D1.2) of the Pan-European anthropogenic emission inventory is ready.

Task 1.3: Development of a baseline scenario (lead: USTUTT, TNO)

This task involves the provision of a baseline scenario for the years 2020 and 2030 and a rough estimate for 2050 for Europe and for the case study Mega Cities (Paris, London, Rhine-Ruhr, Po Valley, Mexico City).

Task 1.4: Case studies (lead: KCL, CNRS, USTUTT, ARIANET)

In all 1st level MCs the contacts have been established and local emission data have been made available, processing is on-going.

Task 1.5: European heat flux inventory (lead: KCL, TNO)

Preparatory work has been done by taking 3 approaches (city and global scales) to heat flux inventory see KCL section under significant results.
 

Task 1.6: Validation, evaluation and improvement of EI's (all WP partners are involved)

The most prominent insight gained from the compilation of bottom-up MC inventories and integrating them into a European emission database is the large discrepancy between spatial distribution of uncertain pollutants like NMVOC and PM. Localization of point sources and fuel use by source sector is being cross-checked to improve the allocation of emissions. Furthermore a method to keep the national total reported emission in tact is designed and will be applied to make the final Del. 1.6. The work under task 1.6 thus directly feeds into Del 1.6 and to some extend into the later Del. 1.5.

Task 1.7: Processing of emission inventories for model sensitivity and scenario (lead: TNO, MPIC).

This task will start when a) Del. 1.5 and Del. 1.6 are ready and b) the scenario data are available allowing the derivation of scaling factors by source sector by country to compile new emission data sets based on Del 1.5 and Del. 1.6 (this is foreseen after M24).

Deliverable 1.1 - Base year global gridded emission inventory (1st version)

Deliverable is ready and made available through the TNO ftp site to modellers within the MEGAPOLI consortium.A deliverable report is written and available from the MEGAPOLI public website. H.A.C. Denier van der Gon, J. Kuenen, T. Butler (2010): A Base Year (2005) MEGAPOLI Global Gridded Emission Inventory (1st Version). Deliverable D1.1, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 10-13, MEGAPOLI-16-REP-2010-06, 20p.

Deliverable 1.2 - Base year European gridded emission inventory, (1st version)
Deliverable is ready and made available through the TNO ftp site to modellers within the MEGAPOLI consortium. A deliverable report is written and available from the MEGAPOLI public website. Denier van der Gon, HAC, AJH Visschedijk, H. van der Brugh, R. Droge, J. Kuenen (2009): A base year (2005) MEGAPOLI European gridded emission inventory (1st version). Deliverable 1.2, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 09-02, MEGAPOLI-02-REP-2009-10, 17p.

 

Deliverable 1.3 - European and mega city baseline scenarios for 2020, 2030 and 2050.

report is ready and available from the MEGAPOLI public website. Theloke J., M.Blesl, D. Bruchhof, T.Kampffmeyer, U. Kugler, M. Uzbasich, K. Schenk, H. Denier van der Gon, S. Finardi, P. Radice, R. S. Sokhi, K. Ravindra, S. Beevers, S. Grimmond, I. Coll, R. Frie-drich, D. van den Hout (2010): European and megacity baseline scenarios for 2020, 2030 and 2050. Deliverable D1.3, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 10-23, MEGAPOLI-26-REP-2010-12, 57p.

 

Deliverable 1.4 - European heat flux inventory

report is ready and available from the MEGAPOLI public website. Allen L., S Beevers, F Lindberg, Mario Iamarino, N Kitiwiroon, CSB Grimmond (2010): Global to City Scale Urban Anthropogenic Heat Flux: Model and Variability. Deliverable 1.4, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 10-01, MEGAPOLI-04-REP-2010-03, 87p.

Deliverable 1.5 - Base year global gridded emission inventory, (final version)
report is ready and available from the MEGAPOLI public website. Butler T., H.A.C. Denier van der Gon, J. Kuenen (2011): The Base Year (2005) Global Gridded Emission Inventory used in the EU FP7 Project MEGAPOLI (Final Version). MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 11-02, MEGAPOLI-28-REP-2011-01, 27p.

Deliverable 1.6 - Base year European gridded emission inventory, (final version)

Deliverable is ready and made available through the TNO ftp site to modellers within the MEGAPOLI consortium. A deliverable report is written and available from the MEGAPOLI public website. Kuenen J., H. Denier van der Gon, A. Visschedijk, H. van der Brugh, S. Finardi, P. Radice, A. d’Allura, S. Beevers, J. Theloke, M. Uzbasich, C. Honoré, O. Perrussel (2010): A Base Year (2005) MEGAPOLI European Gridded Emission Inventory (Final Version). Deliverable D1.6, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 10-17, MEGAPOLI-20-REP-2010-10, 39p.

 


Milestone M1.1 - Workshop on evaluation of first version of European emission inventories, M18).

This milestone has been moved forward and reached in a different format. Since it was decided to aim at making D1.6 well before M24, a workshop around M18 was no longer functional. Instead bilateral meetings have been organized during 1st year to compare the top-down regional scale estimates and bottom-up megacity emission estimates.
This procedure of bilateral meetings and interactive e-mail exchange facilitated the availability of high resolution MC emission data well before the original deadline (M24). However, more time than foreseen was needed to get an accurate match between (detailed) source sectors in the MC data bases and the European emission data base (Del. 1.2). It is expected that D1.6 will be ready in mid 2010 well before the original deadline of M24. In the meanwhile separate arrangements have been made to make the high resolution emission data for Paris available to modellers through a special commitment letter. This allows MEGAPOLI the unique use of high resolution data from Airparif to facilitate MC scale modelling.
General findings from the meetings are:

 

Significant results: Methodologies and scientific achievements related to WP including partners' contributions

ARIANET contribution (Megacity emissions)

The availability of emission inventories for year 2005 over the Po Valley region has been verified through direct contact with Regional Environmental Agencies and Regional Authorities technical departments in charge for inventories development and distribution. The following Po Valley regions have a common project for development of emission inventories at municipal level (NUTS3 level) with a bottom-up methodology called INEMAR (http://www.arpalombardia.it/inemar/eng_inemarhome.htm): Lombardia, Piemonte, Emilia-Romagna, Veneto, Trentino-Alto Adige, and Friuli-Venezia Giulia. At the beginning of summer 2009 regional emission inventories were actually available only for the following regions: Lombardia, Piemonte, Trentino-Alto Adige, and Friuli-Venezia Giulia. For the Po Valley area not covered by the available regional inventories, we agreed with WP Leader to use the Italian national emission inventory (ISPRA2005) released by the Institute for Environmental Protection and Research (http://www.isprambiente.it). The national inventory has been developed with top-down methodology and is characterized by lower space resolution, with data organised at Province level (NUTS2). The main difference between regional and national inventories is the method employed to calculate traffic emissions: COPERT III for the national inventory, and COPERT IV for the regional. The mentioned inventories have been gathered from local authorities who confirmed their willingness to collaborate with MEGAPOLI project and made data available. Regional inventories characteristics have been intercompared with national inventories and with MEGAPOLI European inventory for the area provided by TNO. Total emissions of the different chemical species showed limited differences over the whole Po Valley basin and over the Italian administrative regions, while large differences are detected focusing the comparison over highly urbanised city areas like e.g. Milan Province. The largest differences are shown by CO, SO2 and NMVOC. The mentioned sources of data have been integrated to produce gridded emissions at the same resolution of the European regional emissions (1/8 x 1/16 degree). Po Valley Megacity emissions produced from high resolution inventories can complement the regional scale emissions to perform scenarios analyses. Emissions have been gridded even at a higher resolution (0.0360 x 0.0511 degree, roughly equivalent to 4 x 4 km) resolution over the Po Valley regions. to support air quality modelling over the Alpine region. Gridded emissions over the Po Valley have been released and can be downloaded from Arianet ftp site by modellers within the MEGAPOLI consortium.
 
USTUTT contribution (Megacity emissions)
USTUTT has defined the Rhine-Ruhr area and delivered the concerned emission data for 2005 (on base of the emission inventory of 2004 for North-Rhine Westphalia) for this area. The following data are available:
It was stated a considerably discrepancy for PM10 between the bottom-up emission inventory for the Rhine-Ruhr area based on the North-Rhine Westphalia inventory and the top-down emission inventory based on the official emission inventory. This difference is mainly caused by the industrial sector. Intercomparison with large scale emission data is on-going.
USUTT has compiled a baseline scenario for the years 2020 and 2030 and additional a rough estimate for 2050 for the European scale. The compiling of baseline scenarios for the Mega Cities (Paris, London, Rhine-Ruhr and Po Valley) is ongoing. For Mexico City no official projection for the future exists. Therefore, it is planned to do "reasonable" sensitivity studies and look at their effects. Contacts to local partners in Mexico City have been established  by FORTH.

TNO contribution (Regional and megacity emissions)
TNO has compiled an emission inventory for the base year 2005 by combining various information sources (e.g. country reported emissions, IIASA GAINS estimates and TNO reference data). Much effort was spent on developing new distribution maps for area source emissions (e.g. traffic, agriculture, domestic heating) and a new point source database was compiled. Using the aforementioned achievements a default gridded European emission inventory is compiled. In consultation with local partners (KCL, USTUTT, ARIANET, CNRS) the exact domain of the 1st level MCs is defined and a first identification of the MC emissions has been made. Currently an in-depth comparison of local bottom-up emission estimates and regional top-down estimates is being made. This work will result in the compilation of D1.6 a new European scale emission inventory with nested high resolution MCs emissions included.
Unfortunately, the release of the EDGAR 4.0 database will not be timely for the MEGAPOLI project. A new inventory compiled by Lamarque et al (2010) and projected to 2005 by IIASA (RCP 8.5) is currently being processed by TNO and MPIC to derive country and MC city emissions that can be scaled according to projections developed under task 1.3.

KCL contribution (Anthropogenic heat flux inventory)
KCL has taken three different approaches to developing the anthropogenic heat inventory:
  • For London - we have used a top-down approach to look at the temporal pattern of heat for 2005-2007. The current version is a programme called GreaterQFv2.0 (September 2009). The smallest unit is the Output Area, a fundamental spatial unit of the Office of National Statistics.
  • For London - conducted a detailed bottom-up approach of the traffic related anthropogenic heat flux.
  •  For the globe - a 2.5 arc-minute model has been created (V1.0 September 2009) for all urban areas.
The Large scale Urban Consumption of energY model (LUCY) simulates all components of anthropogenic heat flux (QF) from the global to individual city scale at 0.25 x 0.25 arc-minute resolution. This includes a database of different working patterns and public holidays, vehicle use and energy consumption in each country. The databases can be edited to include specific diurnal and seasonal vehicle and energy consumption patterns, local holidays and flows of people within a city. The results show that QF varied widely through the year, through the day, between countries and urban areas. An assessment of the heat emissions estimated revealed that they are reasonably close to those produced by a global model and a number of small-scale city models, so results from LUCY can be used with a degree of confidence. From LUCY, the global mean urban QF has a diurnal range of 0.7 to 3.6 W m-2, and is greater on weekdays than weekends. The heat release from building is the largest contributor (89 to 96%), to heat emissions globally. Differences between months are greatest in the middle of the day (up to 1 W m-2 at 1pm). December to February, the coldest months in the Northern Hemisphere, have the highest heat emissions. July and August are at the higher end. The least QF is emitted in May. The highest individual grid cell heat fluxes in urban areas were located in New York (577), Paris (261.5), Tokyo (178), San Francisco (173.6), Vancouver (119) and London (106.7). We refer to Allen et al., 2010 for a detailed description of the work.

FMI contribution (Natural emissions)
Task 1.1: Fire Assimilation System, v.1.1 is operational with improved spatial and temporal aggregation of multi-source fire information by FMI. Global inventories of fire emissions have been generated for the time period of 24 Feb 2000 - 31 Dec 2008 using 0.25 x 0.25 degree grid resolution. European fire emissions have been generated with finer, 0.1 x 0.1 degree resolution. The major European fire episodes in 2006 were examined using both chemically speciated size-resolved aerosol measurements and dispersion model computations (Saarnio et al., 2010).
Sea salt emission model of the FMI has been improved and evaluated against experimental data. We have documented in detail the sea salt emission model and its evaluation in combination with the dispersion model SILAM against experimental data.
Birch pollen emission and dispersion modeling has been refined, using data in the Baltic countries and their environment (Veriankaite et al., 2010).
Task 1.4: SILAM model has been refined in terms of chemical composition module (CB-4 mechanism has been implemented). Although not connected to any specific task of MEGAPOLI, a new method of estimating the emissions of marine transport sector was introduced. The new ship emission model will be applied to Istanbul region to study the air quality effects of marine traffic to Bosporus strait area, in collaboration with DMI, KNMI, TNO and the Istanbul Technical University.

MPI and DMI contribution
Most planned effort on this has been postponed, and will be started now that the  1st version of  a global emission inventory has become available. However, the MPIC has developed a megacities mask for WP1, which has been disseminated and used in other WPs (see, e.g. WP6, Deliverable 6.2).. DMI participated in methodological aspects of megacities emission database building and coordination of this work with groups responsible for specific megacities emission data downscaling (e.g. for Istanbul, Moscow, Po Valley, Paris, etc.).

 

Socio-economic relevance and policy implications

Contacts have been established with Po Valley area Regional Environmental Protection Agencies, whom expressed their interest for emission data exchange with neighbouring countries and for the MEGAPOLI European inventory. A meeting with Airparif (the emission and air quality authority in Paris) has been organised where the MEGAPOLI project has been presented and a first comparison between bottom-up (Airparif) and top-down (MEGAPOLI) inventories has been made. Through the established collaboration an access to local (Ile de France) spatial planning institutes necessary for scenario development may result. In general there is great interest at local emission authorities to better understand the discrepancies between local, national and European emission estimates.
 

Discussion and conclusion
The WP1 is well on its way to deliver the needed output for other WPs. Contacting of local authorities and data exchange with 1st level MCs is successful. This is an important achievement as this is critical to the project success. The first version of the regional scale inventory is already being used by the MP modellers, a first heat flux inventory has beeen made, and natural emissions are available for the year 2006. . The main problem to be solved during the 2nd year is the delayed global emission inventory. Despite the failure of the original plan, a state of the art emission inventory is currently available to the global modellers within MP. We will further process this inventory to make it suitable for scenario development according to the MP work plan. It is important to note that although the deliverable report D 1.1 has not yet been submitted no further delays are foreseen in the global modelling due to the availability of the emission inventory. There is a good communication with the (global) modelling WPs and they have (re)planned some of their work accordingly.  

 

List of WP1 reports, publications, presentations

Denier van der Gon, HAC, AJH Visschedijk, H. van der Brugh, R. Dröge, J. Kuenen (2009): A base year (2005) MEGAPOLI European gridded emission inventory (1st version). Deliverable 1.2, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 09-02, 17p, MEGAPOLI-02-REP-2009-10, ISBN: 978-87-992924-2-4; http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr09-02.pdf

Allen L., S Beevers, F Lindberg, Mario Iamarino, N Kitiwiroon, CSB Grimmond (2010): Global to City Scale Urban Anthropogenic Heat Flux: Model and Variability. Deliverable 1.4, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 10-01, MEGAPOLI-04-REP-2010-03, 87p, ISBN: 978-87-992924-4-8; http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr09-03.pdf

Denier van der Gon, H.,  A. Visschedijk, R. Droge, H. vd Brugh, M. Schaap, 2009b European Emissions of PM2.5 and its precursors International Workshop Measurements and Modelling of PM2.5 in Europe, Bilthoven, The Netherlands 23-24 April 2009.

Jalkanen J.-P., Brink A., Kalli J., Pettersson H., Kukkonen J. and Stipa T., 2009. A modelling system for the exhaust emissions of marine traffic and its application in the Baltic Sea area. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 9209-9223.

Saarnio, Karri; Minna Aurela; Hilkka Timonen; Sanna Saarikoski; Kimmo Teinilä; Timo Mäkelä; Mikhail Sofiev; Jarkko Koskinen; Pasi P Aalto; Markku Kulmala; Jaakko Kukkonen and Risto Hillamo, 2010. Fine particles in fresh smoke plumes from boreal forest-fires, Science of the Total Environment, 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2010.03.010, in press.

Sofiev, M., R. Vankevich, M. Lotjonen, M. Prank, V. Petukhov, T. Ermakova, J. Koskinen and J. Kukkonen, 2009. An operational system for the assimilation of satellite information on wild-land fires for the needs of air quality modelling and forecasting, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 6833–6847.

Veriankaitė, Laura, Pilvi Siljamo, Mikhail Sofiev, Ingrida Šaulienė and Jaakko Kukkonen, 2010. Modelling analysis of source regions of long-range transported birch pollen that influences allergenic seasons in Lithuania, Aerobiologia, International Journal of Aerobiology, Vol. 26, Number 1, 47–62.


FP7 EC MEGAPOLI, 2008-2011